The 200-day MA at $65.35 is the only support level that’s been tested and respected this week. Below that, there’s potential support at the 50-day MA near $64.10 and the June 24 low at $64.00, but those haven’t been touched yet—so nothing confirmed there.
On the resistance side, $67.44 continues to act as the long-term pivot. That’s the level capping the tape. A move above it could trigger momentum toward this week’s high at $69.65. Until that happens, we’re trading inside a well-defined band, roughly $64 to $67.50.
Geopolitical Disruptions Add Some Underlying Support
News out of the Middle East is providing some background support. Drone attacks in northern Iraq have reportedly shut in up to 150,000 bpd from Kurdistan. It’s not a massive number, but it’s enough to remind traders that supply risks haven’t gone away.
EIA Report: Supply Draws, But Demand Looks Soft
This week’s EIA data came in mixed. Crude stocks dropped by 3.9 million barrels, beating expectations, and exports surged to 3.5 million bpd. That’s a bullish lean from a supply standpoint.
The demand side, though, showed some weakness. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels and distillates by 4.2 million—both above forecasts. Implied product demand fell off, with gasoline down 670,000 bpd and distillates off by 245,000 bpd. That soft read on end-user demand is part of what’s keeping a lid on prices.
Potential Buy Zone: Limited Risk Between the MAs
For now, the potential buy zone sits between the 200-day MA at $65.35 and the 50-day near $64.10. If price moves into that area, it sets up a defined-risk trade with limited downside below $64.00. But we haven’t seen price get there yet, so it remains a level to monitor—not an active setup.
