WTI futures are holding firmly above key levels. The market remains on the strong side of the long-term pivot at $65.38, with additional support from the 50-day moving average at $64.01 and the 200-day at $64.04. The immediate upside targets are marked at $68.34, followed by $69.89. Traders appear to be awaiting a stronger catalyst to test those resistance zones.
U.S.-EU Energy Pact Eases Demand Fears
A narrowly avoided trade war between the U.S. and the European Union helped support sentiment. The two sides agreed to a framework that imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods but avoids broader escalation. Notably, the pact includes $750 billion in projected EU purchases of U.S. energy over three years—an ambitious figure analysts widely doubt the bloc can fulfill. Still, the deal reduces downside risk to global fuel demand and supports the outlook for U.S. energy exports.
The agreement also includes $600 billion in pledged investment from European companies into the U.S. economy during Trump’s second term, signaling cross-border capital flows that could help stabilize long-term demand profiles.
U.S.-China Talks Offer Demand Tailwind
Trade officials from the U.S. and China are in Stockholm for a second round of talks aimed at resolving long-standing disputes. A breakthrough between the world’s two largest economies would provide a direct boost to global trade flows and support oil demand across industrial and shipping sectors.
These negotiations are being watched closely by energy markets, especially with fuel demand forecasts already under strain from inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Trump Sets Russia Deadline, Raising Supply Concerns
On the geopolitical front, President Trump issued a fresh deadline of “10 or 12 days” for Russia to show progress on ending the war in Ukraine. He warned that without movement, the U.S. would impose additional sanctions on Russia and potentially on buyers of its oil exports.
