From a chart perspective, WTI’s immediate ceilings are clear. The 61.8% level sits at $58.44, with the 50% retracement at $59.23 above that. But the real lid is the 50-day moving average at $60.22, which continues to cap every attempt at a recovery. Until buyers can reclaim that area, rallies are just relief moves.
On the downside, Tuesday’s $57.10 low — the weakest print since October 21 — doesn’t offer much protection. Sellers have been leaning on weakness, and there’s still room for a run toward the October 20 main bottom at $55.91 if sentiment sours further.
EIA Draw Could Help — But Not If Supply Headlines Dominate
API data showed a dip in crude stocks but a rise in fuel inventories. In a normal week, that might tighten things up a touch. But with CPC loadings back online after a brief halt, and OPEC+ likely to stand pat on output this Sunday, the supply side remains the storyline traders keep coming back to.
Oil Prices Forecast: Bias Stays Bearish Unless Buyers Defend the Lows
Right now, the market still wants to sell strength. A solid EIA draw could spark a quick pop, but unless WTI retakes the 50-day moving average, it’s hard to argue for a sustainable rebound. Sellers have the upper hand, and the door toward $55.91 stays open unless negotiations break down or demand shows a surprise spark. The bias remains bearish.
