The market remains above the long-term pivot at $65.38, supported further by the 200-day moving average at $63.99 and the 50-day at $62.10. The crossover of the 200-day above the 50-day signals a bullish bias in the broader trend. Price action continues to consolidate within this structure, awaiting a breakout catalyst.
Ongoing pressure on Russian crude flows raises geopolitical risk premium
Traders are closely tracking U.S. President Donald Trump’s tightened ultimatum on Russia, demanding progress toward ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. The administration is threatening 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to trade Russian oil, a move aimed squarely at China and India—Moscow’s largest customers.
Analysts at JP Morgan expect India to comply with U.S. demands, potentially displacing 2.3 million bpd of Russian barrels. China, on the other hand, is unlikely to bend, raising the risk of tariff escalation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China could face significant duties if it maintains its Russian crude intake.
PVM’s John Evans noted that any resulting gap in global supply would take time to fill, even if Saudi Arabia and OPEC step in. This lag adds further support to near-term prices. Vanda Insights estimates a $4–$5 per barrel risk premium is already baked in.
Mexican exports drop sharply as Pemex prioritizes domestic refining
Adding to supply-side pressure, Mexico’s Pemex slashed exports by 39% year-over-year in June, down to 458,103 bpd—the lowest monthly volume since records began in 1990. The drop aligns with Mexico’s ongoing push for energy “sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic refining. Output remains constrained at 1.6 million bpd, well below the company’s stated goal of 1.8 million.
Pemex also reduced refined product imports by 38% last month as its new Olmeca refinery absorbed more feedstock. While the company aims to boost production via private partnerships, execution remains limited.
