At 11:00 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $64.39, up $0.51 or +0.80%.
OPEC, Tariffs, and Global Politics Pressure Oil Prices Forecast
WTI is still set to close the week down 4.9%, with Brent off 4.3% — the steepest declines since late June. The selloff has been driven by a tariff-fueled demand outlook deterioration. Fresh U.S. tariffs on multiple trading partners took effect Thursday, stoking fears of slower global growth and weaker crude demand, ANZ Bank noted.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Kremlin confirmed that President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in the coming days. The potential diplomatic breakthrough raises speculation of eased sanctions on Russian energy — a development that could bring more barrels to the market. Russian equities rallied on the news, but crude traders remain cautious about real progress.
Geopolitical Risks and U.S. Sanctions Threats Keep Bulls in Check
Trump’s tariff threats against India over its Russian oil purchases, coupled with the possibility of similar measures on China, have rattled market sentiment. China remains Russia’s largest crude buyer, meaning any disruption could significantly alter trade flows. Analysts, however, doubt that the upcoming talks will yield a breakthrough, noting both sides’ firm positions on Ukraine.
PVM’s Tamas Varga warned that the U.S. could still follow through on secondary sanctions against countries dealing in Russian energy, a move that would inject fresh volatility into oil markets. Such sanctions could tighten supply in some regions while creating dislocation in global crude pricing.
Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Persists
While intraday technicals show WTI trying to stabilize above $63.19, the broader chart structure and fundamental market backdrop still point to a bearish bias.
