Efficiency improvements in the Permian Basin have sustained production even as rig counts have dropped sharply since late 2022.
OPEC+ Policy Steady as Demand Softens
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current posture at the November 30 meeting, reinforcing its pause on production increases through early 2026. The group has steadily unwound voluntary cuts this year, adding about 137,000 barrels per day in each of October, November, and December.
Still, the EIA expects OPEC+ output to average roughly 1.3 million barrels per day below stated targets next year given projected inventory builds. On the demand side, the IEA continues to mark growth lower, revising third-quarter demand to 920,000 barrels per day year-over-year but holding full-year 2025 and 2026 growth estimates below 800,000 barrels daily.
China’s consumption has plateaued as EV penetration and LNG trucking reduce gasoline and diesel needs.
Oil Prices Forecast: WTI Outlook Remains Bearish
The near-term trend points lower. The EIA expects WTI to average $58.65 in Q4 2025 before falling to $50.30 in Q1 2026 and holding in the low-$50s next year. Its full-year forecasts stand at $65.15 for 2025 and $51.26 for 2026. Standard Chartered is more constructive, projecting $65.40 in 2025 and $59.90 in 2026, while J.P. Morgan sees $63 this year and $54 next year.
Traders highlight $55 as a critical support level identified by analysts, with the risk of further losses should that floor fail. Overall, surging non-OPEC supply, softening Chinese demand, and uncertainty surrounding Russian exports reinforce a bearish short-term outlook for WTI.
Technically, the market will remain weak until buyers can overcome the 52-week moving average at $62.06 with conviction.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
