OPEC output is projected to rise by 411,000 barrels per day in May, with further increases expected into June. Saudi Aramco plans to maintain June shipments to China at 48 million barrels, holding steady from May.
Elsewhere, Iraqi crude exports are expected to decline, and CPC Blend flows from the Black Sea are easing slightly. Mexico’s Pemex may cut overseas shipments as it redirects supply to domestic refineries, including the new Olmeca facility.
Refined Fuels and Outages Offer Support
JPMorgan analysts noted that even as global crude benchmarks have dropped 22% since mid-January, refining margins and product prices have remained stable.
Tighter refining capacity in the U.S. and Europe is increasing reliance on imports and making markets more vulnerable to unplanned outages.
Temporary supply disruptions like Equinor’s halt at Johan Castberg are helping support prices in the short term.
Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Technical Headwinds
The oil prices forecast remains cautiously constructive.
Trade optimism and strong refined fuel demand are supporting prices, but technical resistance near $63.80 and rising OPEC+ production are limiting further gains.
A decisive move through $64.87 would reinforce the bullish case. Until then, traders should expect consolidation with upside potential tied to fresh trade or supply catalysts.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
