Last week’s bearish close below the 52-week moving average at $63.08 and the long-term pivot at $64.21 confirmed a shift in trend structure. The technical breakdown sets up a potential test of major Fibonacci support at $59.91. A weekly close beneath that level could expose the May 2024 low of $55.74 as the next downside target.
With long-term indicators now pointing lower, the weekly chart reflects a clear deterioration in bullish control.
Demand Signals Weaken as Shutdown Threat Weighs on U.S. Consumption
U.S. consumption risks added further pressure to the complex. The government shutdown has frozen key data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, creating a policy blind spot for the Federal Reserve ahead of its late October meeting.
More immediately, the furlough of up to 750,000 federal workers threatens to dent household spending—especially in energy-sensitive sectors like travel, autos, and appliances. Softer demand trends are already surfacing in the Atlantic Basin, where seasonal refinery turnarounds are reducing crude runs.
Bearish Market Outlook: WTI Risks Retest of May Lows
With WTI crude trading below its 52-week average and long-term pivot, the path of least resistance remains lower. Unless prices reclaim $63.08 on a weekly close, the technical setup favors further downside toward $59.91 and potentially $55.74. The crude oil prices forecast remains bearish for the week ahead.
