At 10:39 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $67.99, down $0.39 or -0.57%.
Trump Tariffs and Federal Reserve Outlook Weigh on Crude Oil News Today
Oil’s pullback followed renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who targeted Brazil with a potential 50% export tariff and signaled broader measures on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. While markets have learned to discount Trump’s tariff threats due to past reversals, traders remain cautious as tariff risks could slow global economic growth, dampening oil demand.
The Federal Reserve minutes showed only limited appetite for near-term rate cuts, with policymakers concerned about inflationary pressures from potential tariffs. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, reducing demand for oil and risk appetite in broader markets, keeping traders defensive.
OPEC Production Plans and Supply Uncertainties Support Oil Prices Projections
While OPEC+ announced plans for further production boosts, there is skepticism these quotas will translate into actual supply increases. Russia faces constraints due to infrastructure issues, and some members are already exceeding quotas. OPEC’s longer-term outlook indicates continued demand growth, with no sign of peak oil use despite lowering medium-term forecasts due to slower Chinese growth and EV penetration.
OPEC projects global demand to reach 105 million bpd this year, climbing to 111.6 million bpd by 2029, well above IEA’s expected demand peak of 105.6 million bpd by 2029. This divergence in forecasts underlines ongoing uncertainty over supply-demand balances.
Strong Gasoline Demand and Record Flights Highlight Demand Resilience
Supporting the market, the EIA reported rising U.S. gasoline demand, up 6% to 9.2 million bpd last week, while global daily flights hit a record 107,600 in early July. Port and freight activity also indicate sustained trade expansion, reinforcing demand stability even as broader macroeconomic risks weigh.
