Last week, Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $58.90, down $1.98 or -3.25%.
OPEC+ Restraint Overshadowed by Rising Global Supply
Despite OPEC+ maintaining only a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, the production outlook remains bearish. Traders are now increasingly focused on resurgent U.S. output, which the EIA has revised higher to a record 13.53 million bpd for 2025. Additional barrels from Venezuela, Kurdish regions, and Middle Eastern exporters further weigh on the global balance.
Easing fears of near-term shortages have pulled attention away from OPEC+ policy moves and toward the broader supply picture, which now appears to be tilting firmly toward oversupply into year-end.
Geopolitical Premium Unwinds, Pressuring Oil Prices
The Middle East ceasefire has cooled a major source of geopolitical tension that had supported prices in recent months. With threats to Red Sea shipping routes and Iranian supply disruptions now seen as less imminent, the risk premium has narrowed considerably. Analysts warn that unless new supply disruptions emerge, crude may struggle to hold above key technical levels.
