Oil Prices Forecast Hinges on EIA Draws vs. Oversupply Signals
Industry data from the API showed a 4.45 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending November 14, along with increases of 1.55 million barrels in gasoline and 577,000 barrels in distillates.
ING strategists called the report “relatively bearish,” though they highlighted that traders remain focused on supply risks rather than a prolonged surplus. This mixed setup places even more weight on the government data.
A draw in fuel stocks could provide the bullish spark needed to clear the 50-day moving average and shift momentum toward higher resistance levels outlined by traders.
Tighter Fuel Markets Support the Bullish Case
Despite oversupply concerns, price declines have been limited. Analysts noted that attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have tightened the fuel market, especially in diesel.
PVM’s John Evans said Tuesday’s gains were supported by reduced Russian diesel exports, which pushed European diesel margins to their highest level since September 2023.
This tightening in refined product markets presents a supportive backdrop if the EIA confirms stronger fuel demand or unexpected inventory draws. Traders are looking for a 1.9M barrel crude oil draw.
