Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed he is prepared to work with Washington on a possible plan, further pressuring bullish sentiment.
Oil Prices Projections Clouded by Uncertainty Around Russia Sanctions
Analysts caution that any peace arrangement remains far from guaranteed. ANZ noted that Kyiv has repeatedly rejected Moscow’s demands, keeping the timeline unpredictable.
At the same time, traders doubt the effectiveness of the newest round of U.S. restrictions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with Lukoil allowed until December 13 to offload its international portfolio.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said the combination of negotiations and new sanctions brought some relief to supply-risk concerns, but the market remains unsure of the true impact.
Stronger Dollar Weighs on Crude as Fed Expectations Shift
A strengthening U.S. dollar is adding another layer of pressure. The currency is on track for its strongest week in more than a month as traders pare back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
According to OANDA’s Kelvin Wong, CME FedWatch now shows only a 35% chance of a December rate cut, down sharply from roughly 90% a month earlier. A firmer dollar typically dampens crude buying interest from non-U.S. holders, reinforcing the day’s downside push.
Market Forecast: Short-Term Bias Remains Bearish
With WTI futures trading below the 61.8% retracement support and last week’s swing low, and with geopolitical developments and broader risk sentiment turning negative, the near-term outlook stays bearish.
Unless buyers reclaim $58.44 and $59.23 and mount a push toward the 50-day moving average at $60.52, the market appears positioned for a test of the $55.91 and $55.22 main bottoms.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
