At 09:55. Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.07, down $0.07 or -0.11%.
OPEC+ Supply Constraints Hold Despite Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks
A potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains a headline driver, but analysts caution against assuming near-term impacts on oil flows. Even if peace negotiations progress, Russia’s OPEC+ obligations continue to restrict production, muting any immediate supply boost. While President Putin signaled openness to talks, U.S. President Donald Trump has refrained from fresh sanctions on Moscow, softening geopolitical risk premiums but offering no real supply clarity.
US-Iran Nuclear Talks Pose Key Risk to Oil Prices Forecast
The possibility of renewed Iranian oil supply remains a bearish overhang. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei voiced skepticism over ongoing nuclear talks, but any progress could eventually bring 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day back to the market, according to StoneX. Traders are watching for signs of a breakthrough, as sanctions relief would shift the supply balance and weigh on oil prices projections.
China Demand Concerns Cap Upside Despite Tariff Truce
Soft economic data from China further pressured crude sentiment. Industrial output and retail sales came in weaker than expected, raising concerns over fuel demand from the world’s largest crude importer. However, some traders remain cautiously optimistic following a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China and signs of improving trade flows. Goldman Sachs highlighted a late uptick in Chinese activity, which may offset some demand fears.
Crude Oil Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Without Fresh Catalysts
In the absence of a clear resolution on Iran or a material shift in Russia’s export stance, oil remains in technical limbo. Weak Chinese demand signals and lack of conviction on U.S.-Iran progress lean bearish, especially if prices breach $62.59 support.
A breakout above $63.10 could shift momentum, but until then, crude prices are likely to remain rangebound with downside risk prevailing.
