Pipeline Attack Puts Russian Exports in the Spotlight
The weekend’s headline-grabber: a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out a mooring at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, temporarily halting exports through a route that handles about 1% of global supply. Chevron, a CPC shareholder, says loadings have resumed at Novorossiysk, but the damage underscores a vulnerability that markets had been pricing out. Russian energy infrastructure remains in the crosshairs, and disruptions can hit without warning.
Meanwhile, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal — which had weighed on prices over the past two weeks on fears of Russian barrels flooding back into the market — are starting to look premature. Uncertainty is creeping back in, and with it, a little risk premium.
OPEC+ Holds the Line, Venezuela Adds to the Tension
OPEC+ did its part to steady the ship, agreeing to keep production targets unchanged for Q1 2026. After months of glut fears dominating the conversation, the decision not to chase market share offered some relief. As LSEG’s Anh Pham noted, it helped stabilize expectations around supply growth — a modest win for bulls who’ve been on the defensive.
Then there’s Venezuela. Trump rattled traders over the weekend by suggesting the airspace above the South American producer should be considered closed. He walked it back on Sunday — “Don’t read anything into it” — but the damage was done. Venezuela’s a meaningful producer, and any hint of military escalation adds real barrels to the risk premium, even if the threat stays rhetorical.
