However, the executive order imposed 10% to 41% duties on countries like Canada, India, and Taiwan that failed to meet the deadline. While the initial market reaction was muted, analysts flagged the risk of broader economic slowdown and inflationary pressure that could ultimately weigh on oil demand.
Russian Crude Threats Keep Supply Risk Premium Elevated
A key driver of the week’s price strength was mounting concern over global crude supply. President Trump reiterated threats to impose 100% secondary sanctions on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil—namely China and India.
JP Morgan estimated that up to 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian exports could be disrupted if the U.S. follows through. While the market remains skeptical of full enforcement, the threat added a considerable geopolitical risk premium.
OPEC+ Output Strategy Clouded by Uncertainty
Reports late in the week suggested OPEC+ could agree to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. Sources close to the talks noted that discussions were ongoing and that any increase might be smaller than anticipated. The prospect of higher output briefly pressured prices on Friday, but the market maintained its gains as traders assessed broader supply dynamics.
U.S. Macro Data Disappoints, but Refined Product Demand Remains Firm
Economic signals from the U.S. were mixed. The July jobs report missed expectations with just 73,000 jobs added, raising the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.7 million barrels, though a sharp 2.7 million barrel draw in gasoline stocks pointed to ongoing strength in consumer fuel demand.
