The move confirmed $58.12 as a minor bottom and kept prices within reach of the 50-day moving average, currently acting as resistance at $60.82.
The 50-day moving average has been capping gains since October 27 and remains the key trend indicator. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger further upside toward the 200-day moving average at $61.52.
However, traders believe Friday’s gains were largely driven by buy stops, suggesting the move may not yet reflect committed long positions. A successful retest of the recent support zone followed by renewed buying would be the first real sign of sustainable bullish interest.
Russian Port Attack Raises Supply Fears
The rally in oil was fueled by geopolitical tension after Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russia’s Novorossiisk port, disrupting oil exports. The attack damaged an oil depot, a ship, and residential buildings, prompting Russian officials to halt exports through the key terminal.
The Novorossiisk port accounts for about 2.2 million barrels per day—roughly 2% of global crude supply—and the shutdown has intensified market concerns over potential long-term disruptions.
Analysts noted that the scale and impact of this attack were more significant than previous incidents. “Eventually, they could hit something that causes lasting disruption,” said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS, pointing to the increasing frequency and precision of Ukrainian strikes.
