Support remains layered, with $64.05 now acting as the first technical floor. A failure to hold this level would expose prices to a pullback toward the 200-day moving average at $63.28. A deeper breakdown could ultimately retest the primary bottom at $61.12.
At 11:04 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $65.92, up $1.91 or +2.98%.
Russia-Ukraine Escalation Fuels Oil Supply Risk Premium
Oil’s upward momentum is being reinforced by growing disruptions to Russian supply. Ukrainian drone strikes have taken out at least 17% of Russia’s refining capacity—roughly 1.1 million barrels per day—according to Reuters. President Zelenskyy’s vow for “deep strikes” suggests the threat to infrastructure is ongoing.
Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions are adding further pressure. The U.S. has tightened tariffs on Indian imports, attributing the move to India’s continued Russian crude purchases, prompting criticism from New Delhi. Though Washington has so far avoided sanctioning China—Russia’s top oil buyer—geopolitical risks are now firmly embedded in oil price projections.
OPEC+ Holds Steady as Supply Cuts Support Market
Traders are also focused on the upcoming September 7 OPEC+ meeting, where eight core members—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—will assess output strategy. While the group recently accelerated the rollback of a 2.2 million bpd cut, analysts at ING expect no major policy shift in October. The prevailing view is that supply will remain tight, and the larger risk lies in potential reinstatement of deeper cuts if the market softens.
SEB Commodities, however, warned in a client note that prices could average as low as $55 in Q4 unless OPEC+ intervenes again. Such bearish estimates are currently being counterbalanced by physical disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
