At 10:44 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $65.07, up $0.15 or +0.23%.
OPEC+ output strategy adds to trader uncertainty
Fresh comments from Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin introduced new questions around OPEC+ policy. He suggested that planned output hikes could be advanced by as much as a year. This potential shift, coming just weeks after the alliance extended production cuts, complicates oil prices projections. Any earlier-than-expected supply increase could cap upside, especially if global demand fails to accelerate in tandem.
U.S. demand rebounds as inventories drop sharply
Supporting prices, recent EIA data shows robust U.S. fuel consumption. Crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels last week—far exceeding forecasts for a 797,000-barrel draw—while gasoline stocks dropped 2.1 million barrels despite expectations for a build.
Notably, gasoline supplied surged to its highest level since December 2021, confirming a delayed but now active driving season. This fundamental strength offers a buffer against geopolitical risk and technical headwinds.
Ceasefire in focus as traders reassess geopolitical risk
Oil markets are treading water as traders digest signals around the Iran-Israel ceasefire. While former President Trump welcomed the truce and hinted at possible sanctions relief for Iran, his comments maintained a hardline tone on Iranian oil exports. Any shift in U.S. enforcement could free up additional barrels, pressuring prices. For now, the geopolitical risk premium is muted but remains a key watchpoint.
Market outlook: Neutral bias with bearish risk below the 200-Day Moving Average
Crude oil remains rangebound, but pressure is building. Strong U.S. demand lends support, yet macroeconomic caution and uncertain OPEC+ intentions weigh on sentiment.
