I haven’t seen any reports of oil fields or facilities being targeted yet, but that could change fast. The big question remains, if and when will Iran threaten 20% of the world’s oil supply by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump’s Deadline Ran Out, a Little Earlier Than Expected
President Trump warned on February 19 that Iran had a 10-to-15-day window to make a deal to end its nuclear program, but after three rounds of talks ended on Thursday, time was up, a little earlier than expected, so now, according to Trump, “it’s going to be unfortunate for them.”
Oil Is the Central Barometer of This Crisis
No one wants to downplay the loss of life or the destruction of another country’s infrastructure, but in my opinion, oil is the central barometer of the crisis. The facts are, Iran is a major oil producer, and the Strait of Hormuz, which lies off Iran’s coast, carries about a fifth of global oil supply.
If we try to forecast Iran’s next move, it’s likely to be more missile launches against neighboring Arab states, and if the new leadership believes its days are numbered, the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, the threat is so real that I’ve seen reports that several major oil companies and trading houses have already suspended crude oil and fuel shipments that use the Strait.
