Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are poised for a sharp rebound, with operating profits expected to surge more than 50 per cent to $18-20 per barrel this fiscal year, driven by stronger marketing margins amid stable retail fuel prices and supportive crude oil dynamics, Crisil Ratings said on Friday.
OMCs earn from refining (gross refining margins or GRMs) and from marketing of petrol, diesel, and other fuels.
“This fiscal, the improvement in marketing margin will more than offset a moderation in refining margin owing to slow growth in global demand for fossil fuels as the world transitions towards cleaner energy sources,” Crisil Ratings said in a note.
Healthy profitability is set to bolster cash accruals to ₹75,000-80,000 crore, compared with about ₹55,000 crore last fiscal year. The stronger cash flow will support the sector’s planned ₹90,000 crore capex, largely focused on brownfield expansion and domestic demand-driven projects.
Crude oil prices are expected to soften to $65-67 per barrel, keeping GRMs modest at $4-6 per barrel.
In contrast, marketing margins are projected to jump to roughly $14 per barrel (about ₹8 per litre), lifting overall operating margins.
Over the past five fiscal years, geopolitical uncertainties have impacted oil prices, while retail fuel prices have been range-bound.
As a result, OMCs’ operating profit dipped to as low as $0.13 per barrel in FY23, when oil prices averaged $93 per barrel, and peaked at about $20 per barrel in FY24, when oil prices softened to $83 per barrel.
While annual margins have fluctuated, they have ultimately normalised to about $11 per barrel.
In FY25 (year ended March 31, 2025), OMCs’ operating profit of $12 per barrel was in line with the decadal industry average. With crude oil prices averaging $79 per barrel, GRM was $6 per barrel and so was marketing margin (₹3 per litre), it said.
“This fiscal, crude price, though volatile, are likely to soften to $65-67 per barrel. GRM is expected to remain modest at $4-6 per barrel as moderate global demand and energy transition trends weigh on refining spreads. Amid this, unchanged retail fuel prices will boost marketing margin to $14 per barrel (₹8 per litre), resulting in overall margin improving more than 50 per cent to $18-20 per barrel,” said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings.
With profitability strengthening, OMCs’ leverage is set to improve, with debt-to-Ebitda likely easing to 2.2x from 3.6x last year.
“Capex momentum continues, but healthier earnings will limit reliance on external debt,” said Joanne Gonsalves, Associate Director, adding that credit profiles remain supported by the sector’s strategic role and government ownership.
Analysts cautioned that any major supply cuts or geopolitical escalation could disrupt crude prices and alter the outlook.
