Oil was little changed for a second day as investors await clarity on how latest US sanctions on top Russian producers will affect flows to India and if progress in trade talks will revive American crude shipments to China.
West Texas Intermediate rose about 0.1% to settle below $61 a barrel. Some Indian refiners have paused purchases of Russian fuel following the US blacklisting of two major Russian producers last week. Earlier in the week, however, Indian Oil Corp said that the company is “absolutely not going to discontinue” its purchases of Russian crude.
The boss of TotalEnergies, meanwhile, said on Thursday he thinks that the oil market is underestimating the impact of the sanctions.
Traders are keeping a close eye on next moves by India and China, top buyers of Moscow’s supplies, for clues on impacts to global balances.
US President Donald Trump said China would buy more US energy as part of a wider trade truce but investors are still waiting to see signs that the purchases will materialize. China last imported US crude oil in May and liquefied natural gas in February, according to Customs data.
Offering a ceiling to prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday tempered expectations for another December rate cut as Fed officials navigate a slowing labor market and above target inflation. That stoked worry that the second-largest crude importing economy won’t get a boost from lower rates just as excess supplies are expected to hit the market.
“The quarter percentage point cut in interest rates was within expectations, however the Fed Chairman’s comments are a near-term pressure point for crude,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial. WTI front-month futures will be met with technical support at the $58.18 level, he added.
Crude remains on track for a third monthly decline, the longest losing run since the third quarter of last year. Prices have been hurt by expectations that supply hikes from OPEC+ as well as rival drillers will drive production above demand. The International Energy Agency has warned that the surplus in 2026 will be a record, though Saudi Aramco has struck a more positive tone. Oversupply in 2026 is a “highly credible scenario,” Shell Plc CEO Wael Sawan said in an earnings call Thursday.
The OPEC+ producers’ group, meanwhile, will hold discussions on Sunday about output policy. The alliance is expected to focus on reviving another sliver of production in December in a move that may amplify traders’ concerns about a global glut.
The group is likely to boost output quotas by a modest 137,000 barrels a day for December, RBC Capital Markets LLC said in a note.
Oil Prices
WTI for December delivery rose 0.15% to settle at $60.57 a barrel in New York.
Brent for December settlement was up 0.12% at $65 a barrel.
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