Oil snapped a three-day winning streak as a worsening market outlook undercut concerns about potential geopolitical disruptions to supplies.
West Texas Intermediate slid 2% to settle below $63 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it now sees an even larger record oil surplus next year as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals grows. Meanwhile, US economic data showed a surge in jobless claims, adding to concerns that the labor market in the world’s largest economy is weakening.
The retreat follows a three-day gain driven by tensions in the Middle East and Europe, with US President Donald Trump questioning Israel’s attack in Qatar and Russia’s incursion into Polish airspace. His social media post on Wednesday prompted futures to spike briefly as investors covered short positions.
Oil traders are broadly grappling with the balance between geopolitical risks and rising supplies, which has kept prices trapped in a band between roughly $62 and $67 a barrel since the start of August.
“On the one hand, we have this surplus emerging in the market,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the IEA said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “But we’re also seeing the risk to supply.”
The IEA projections comes just days after the Energy Information Administration, another major forecaster, reported that a glut is already underway, with inventories expected to swell in the current quarter.
Trump has also told European Union officials that he’s willing to add new tariffs on India and China, the top buyers of Russian oil, in an effort to get the Kremlin to negotiate with Ukraine — but only if EU nations do so as well. So far, Trump has only targeted India for the trade.
While much of the buildup in oil stockpiles has been away from major pricing points so far this year, data on Wednesday showed the biggest increase in American crude and petroleum inventories since the summer of 2023, a move that could weigh on prices if sustained.
The market is caught in a “tug-of-war between increasingly bearish fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks,” analysts at Citigroup Inc. said in a note. The bank reaffirmed its forecasts for Brent to drop into the low $60s by year-end and into 2026.
Oil Prices
WTI for October delivery slipped 2% to settle at $62.37 a barrel in New York.
Brent for November settlement fell 1.7% to settle at $66.37 a barrel.
What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the
Rigzone Energy Network.
The Rigzone Energy Network is a new social experience created for you and all energy professionals to Speak Up about our industry, share knowledge, connect with peers and industry insiders and engage in a professional community that will empower your career in energy.
element
var scriptTag = document.createElement(‘script’);
scriptTag.src = url;
scriptTag.async = true;
scriptTag.onload = implementationCode;
scriptTag.onreadystatechange = implementationCode;
location.appendChild(scriptTag);
};
var div = document.getElementById(‘rigzonelogo’);
div.innerHTML += ” +
‘
‘ +
”;
var initJobSearch = function () {
//console.log(“call back”);
}
var addMetaPixel = function () {
if (-1 > -1 || -1 > -1) {
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
} else if (0 > -1 && 62 > -1)
{
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
}
}
// function gtmFunctionForLayout()
// {
//loadJS(“https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-K6ZDLWV6VX”, initJobSearch, document.body);
//}
// window.onload = (e => {
// setTimeout(
// function () {
// document.addEventListener(“DOMContentLoaded”, function () {
// // Select all anchor elements with class ‘ui-tabs-anchor’
// const anchors = document.querySelectorAll(‘a .ui-tabs-anchor’);
// // Loop through each anchor and remove the role attribute if it is set to “presentation”
// anchors.forEach(anchor => {
// if (anchor.getAttribute(‘role’) === ‘presentation’) {
// anchor.removeAttribute(‘role’);
// }
// });
// });
// }
// , 200);
//});
