In a report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop noted that Brent crude “ma[de]… some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattle[d]… markets”.
“Brent crude spiked to a high of $67.38 per barrel yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar, but it wasn’t able to hold on to that level and only closed up 0.6 percent in the end at $66.39 per barrel,” he added.
“This morning it is starting on the up with a gain of 0.9 percent at $67 per barrel – still rattled by Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar yesterday,” he continued.
“Brent is getting some help on the margin this morning with Asian equities higher and copper gaining half a percent, but the dark cloud of surplus ahead is nonetheless hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollars lower than last Tuesday,” he said.
Schieldrop went on to state in the report that geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely last long unless actual supply disruption kicks in.
“While Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar is shocking, the geopolitical risk lifting crude oil yesterday and this morning is unlikely to last very long as such geopolitical risk premiums usually do not last long unless real disruption kicks in,” he added.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, said, “the rare escalation in tension in the Middle East, as Hamas officials are targeted in Qatar, carries significant market implications”.
“Oil markets reacted swiftly, with Brent crude climbing to $67 per barrel. Qatar’s role as both a key energy exporter and a diplomatic mediator means that any disruption to its stability could affect supply expectations,” he added.
“This comes against the backdrop of a modest OPEC+ production increase, China’s continued stockpiling, and renewed fears of Western sanctions on Russia, all of which add to upside pressure on crude,” he continued.
In an oil market update sent to Rigzone by the Rystad Energy team on Tuesday, Jorge Leon, Rystad’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, said, “Israeli actions mark yet another step in the ongoing Middle East escalation”.
“The risk of regional spillover is rising. Much will depend on Qatar’s response – as both a close U.S. ally and a key GCC member, its next steps will shape the trajectory of regional dynamics,” he added.
“Any fallout could amplify tensions across the Gulf and beyond, underscoring just how precarious the situation has become,” Leon went on to warn.
In a statement posted on his X page on Tuesday, Majed Al Ansari – who describes himself on his X page as Advisor to the Prime Minister of Qatar and the official spokesperson for the country’s ministry of foreign affairs – said the State of Qatar “strongly condemns” the attack.
“While the State of Qatar strongly condemns this assault, it confirms that it will not tolerate this reckless Israeli behavior and the ongoing disruption of regional security, nor any act that targets its security and sovereignty,” he added in the statement.
“Investigations are underway at the highest level, and further details will be announced as soon as they are available,” he added.
A statement posted on the Israeli Defense Forces X page on Tuesday, which was retweeted by the X page of the country’s foreign ministry, said the IDF and ISA “conducted a precise strike targeting the senior leadership” of Hamas.
“Prior to the strike, measures were taken in order to mitigate harm to civilians, including the use of precise munitions and additional intelligence,” the statement added.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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