Despite the best exploration results in four years in 2025, Norway will need even more exploration and discoveries, as well as investment in new oil and gas projects, to reverse an expected decline in output from the late 2020s, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said on Thursday.
The Directorate expects investments of $25.3 billion (256 billion Norwegian crowns) from the industry in 2026, down by ?6.5% from 2025, Norway’s offshore energy regulator said in its annual report on the activity on the Norwegian Shelf.
Leading up to 2030, the directorate expects the investment level to decline gradually due to the completion of development projects without equivalent new projects to replace them.??
“Toward the end of the 2020s, the Directorate expects a reduction in overall production.?A number of?new field development decisions will be needed?to?slow this?anticipated?decline. It will also be important to?maintain?high exploration activity.?Failing to invest?will lead to a substantial dismantling of the petroleum industry,” the regulator warned.
Energy operators offshore Norway expect to invest $24.8 billion (249 billion Norwegian crowns) in oil and gas activities in 2026, Statistics Norway’s latest quarterly survey showed in November.
The estimate is $1.9 billion higher compared to the previous quarter’s forecast, mainly driven by higher forecasts of investments in field development and operating fields, the Norwegian statistics office said.
Companies operating offshore Norway are raising production of gas and oil, with the support of the Norwegian government, which continues to bet on the oil and gas industry and the massive revenues it raises for the country and its sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest.
Norway has also started to plan its 26th oil and gas licensing round in little-explored frontier areas as it looks to boost exploration and resources to stem an expected decline in production from the early 2030s.
Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, Norway, is not complacent. It is aware that it needs more exploration and new field developments to keep output at high levels while the world still needs it.
“Norway wants to be a long-term supplier of oil and gas to Europe, while the Norwegian continental shelf will continue to create value and jobs for our country,” Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in August, announcing the plans for the new licensing round.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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