Almost a third of citizens in the Pacific nation of Tuvalu are seeking a landmark visa in the context of climate change to live in Australia as rising seas threaten their palm-fringed shores, official figures show.
Australia is offering visas to 280 Tuvalu citizens each year under a climate migration deal Canberra has billed as “the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world”.
More than 3,000 Tuvaluans have already entered a ballot for the first batch of visas, according to official figures on the Australian program – almost a third of the nation’s population.
One of the most climate-threatened corners of the planet, Tuvalu will be uninhabitable within the next 80 years, scientists fear. Two of the archipelago’s nine coral atolls have already largely disappeared under the waves.
“Australia recognises the devastating impact climate change is having on the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and people, particularly in the Pacific region,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.
Australia and Tuvalu signed the groundbreaking Falepili Union in 2024, part of Canberra’s efforts to blunt China’s expanding reach in the region. Under that pact, Australia opened a new visa category specially set aside for adult citizens of Tuvalu.
Already, there are signs the program will be hugely oversubscribed.
Official data on the program shows 3,125 Tuvaluans entered the random ballot within four days of it opening last week.
“This is the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world, providing a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen,” a spokesperson for Australia’s foreign affairs department said.
Tuvalu is home to 10,643 people, according to census figures collected in 2022.
Registration costs A$25 ($16), with the ballot closing on 18 July.
The visa program has been hailed as a landmark response to the looming challenge of climate-forced migration.
“At the same time, it will provide Tuvaluans the choice to live, study and work in Australia,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.
But it has also fanned fears that nations like Tuvalu could be rapidly drained of skilled professionals and young talent.
University of Sydney geographer John Connell warned that a long-term exodus of workers could imperil Tuvalu’s future.
“Small states do not have many jobs and some activities don’t need that many people,” he said. “Atolls don’t offer much of a future: agriculture is hard, fisheries offer wonderful potential but it doesn’t generate employment.”
The Falepili pact commits Australia to defending Tuvalu in the face of natural disasters, health pandemics and “military aggression”.
“For the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to come to the aid of Tuvalu, upon request, when Tuvalu encounters a major natural disaster, a health pandemic or military aggression,” Tuvalu’s prime minister, Feleti Teo, said at the time.
“Again, for the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to recognise the future statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu despite the detrimental impact of climate changed-induced sea level rise.”
The agreement also offers Australia a say in any other defence pacts Tuvalu signs with other countries, raising concerns at the time that the Pacific nation was handing over its sovereignty.
Tuvalu is one of just 12 states that still have formal diplomatic relations with Taipei rather than Beijing.
Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said last year that his country shared a vision for a “peaceful, stable, prosperous and unified region”.
“It shows our Pacific partners that they can rely on Australia as a trusted and genuine partner.”
