Mozambique Unrest Flares as $25B LNG Work Set to Resume

An Islamist insurgency that froze TotalEnergies SE’s $24.5-billion gas project in Mozambique four years ago is intensifying, just as the French oil major prepares to restart development.

Militants affiliated with Islamic State have in recent months carried out raids across the northeastern Cabo Delgado province that hosts the Total project and another led by Exxon Mobil Corp. The number of attacks against civilians in the region has almost doubled in 2025 to the highest in years, according to the United Nations.

TotalEnergies’ announcement last weekend that it’s restarting the project — seen as pivotal to transforming one of the world’s poorest nations — lifted Mozambique’s eurobonds 2.9% on Monday. At the same time, there are growing fears among local communities that the security situation near the project site at Afungi is deteriorating — with more than 90,000 people fleeing attacks since the last week of September.

“Right now, people are living in fear,” Andrew Bogrand, a senior policy adviser at Oxfam America, said after a visit to the region that included a resettlement village adjacent to the project. “Folks in Quitunda, police officers, contractors — they don’t see how this project can work if people are concerned about security.”

The militants have in recent weeks made incursions into both Palma — neighboring the LNG site — and nearby Mocimboa da Praia, where they filmed themselves preaching in a local mosque. That was symbolic: The port town is where the extremist insurgency began in 2017 as a ragtag army of local youth in one of the poorest parts of Mozambique. They later occupied the town for about a year.

Total has estimated charges of $4.5 billion during the halt to construction, adding to the original $20 billion project cost — revisions that require government approval before work resumes. The company paid $3.9 billion for its 26.5% stake in the project and with partners has already invested more into building the plant that will add to global supply just as a wave of new production hits later this decade.

The resources promise lucrative returns, and the group has already flagged plans to double export capacity with a second phase.

The planned restart comes four years after the company and its partners declared force majeure — a contractual freeze caused by circumstances beyond its control — after a major attack on Palma.

Foreign Troops 

That raid, in which more than 800 people died, marked a turning point in the conflict that began in 2017. Mozambique enlisted the help of troops from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community — an economic bloc — to beat back the insurgents.

While regional states earlier this year estimated as few as 300 rebel fighters remain, Maputo-based independent analyst Johann Smith said there might be many times more that number. Smaller-scale raids have accelerated in recent weeks, including in towns that the LNG project has relied on for logistics. Still, there haven’t been major attacks since May 2024, when the group temporarily overran the town of Macomia. 

The government has played down the threat. The militants don’t occupy any towns, and are “moving frantically throughout the province,” Defense Minister Cristóvão Chume said on state television last week.

TotalEnergies didn’t respond to an emailed request for comment.

Most attacks are unsophisticated, and driven by necessity and opportunism, according to Tristan Gueret, an analyst for Control Risks. 

“Security measures around the Afungi LNG park mean militants are unlikely to be able to pose a major or sustained threat to business operations there,” he said. “In any case, the targeting of LNG operations does not appear to be a strategic priority for the group.”

Total has faced repeated false starts at the project. By the time of the 2021 attack, the facility was about one-third complete. Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanné has faced questions on virtually every earnings call about the project during the force majeure.

In the first year of the shutdown, he emphasized the need for a peaceful environment. “We will not build a plant in the country where we would be surrounded by soldiers,” he said on a call in February 2022.

The following year, a targeted restart didn’t materialize. Indonesia’s national oil company canceled a deal to buy LNG from the project. Total turned to renewing financing pledges, including a $4.7 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank. 

A new 2024 restart target came and went, until momentum picked up this year. Mozambican President Daniel Chapo said Cabo Delgado province that hosts the project would never be “heaven,” but was sufficiently stable.

In August, Mozambique signed a formal deal with Rwanda for thousands of troops to remain in the province through at least 2029. 

Total has added fencing and control towers to the site, creating a fortified environment. The environment excludes locals, according to Oxfam’s Bogrand, who described the area as “a bunker.” Perceptions about discrepancies between security for the project and how communities are protected may aid insurgent recruitment efforts, he said.

It also raises political and social risks for Chapo’s government, said Gustavo Plácido, an analyst at Horizon Engage in Lisbon.

“A popular perception of authorities safeguarding the interests of projects to the detriment of the bulk of the province will be a major challenge for Chapo,” he said.