Morgan Stanley expects OECD oil inventories to rise by no more than 165 million barrels over the next 12 months, maintaining its Brent crude forecast at $65. The firm said the pace of accumulation is easing, with Asian demand holding steady and fewer strategic reserves being filled than earlier in the year.
The view stands in contrast to broader market concerns over mounting global inventories following recent OPEC+ production increases. But analysts say most of the build has occurred outside OECD countries. The Edge Malaysia reported that only about 10% of the 235-million-barrel global increase through June was tied to OECD systems, the most closely tracked by traders.
Morgan Stanley’s updated note suggests the market remains structurally stable. Despite higher output, global supply appears to be getting absorbed without overwhelming commercial stockpiles. That position was echoed last week by UAE energy officials, who noted that markets are “taking in more crude without a visible stockpile jump,” according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs also revised its Brent outlook upward this week to $66 for the second half of 2025, citing firm summer demand and low spare capacity. However, the bank warned of a possible return to surplus in 2026.
In the first week of July, Goldman Sachs said it saw a potential OPEC+ “superhike” in September if market softness persists.
With stockpile growth slowing and Brent hovering below $70, analysts across major institutions appear aligned: near-term conditions are stable, but volatility risks remain heading into winter.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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