AI-powered agents are poised to shake up online shopping. They could also meaningfully expand the US e-commerce market.
Morgan Stanley wrote in a note last week that AI shopping agents will transform the online retail landscape over the next few years, predicting that nearly half of all US e-commerce shoppers will use AI agents by 2030.
These “agentic commerce” tools that can make product recommendations, run price comparisons, and manage orders could add as much as $115 billion to US online spending, the firm wrote in the note.
“We believe agentic commerce — in effect the ability to have a personal digital interactive shopper — is set to be the best next substantial GenAI-enabled unlock,” the note stated. “With greater digitization of consumers’ wallets, agentic could add up to $115 billion to our ’30 e-comm forecast and shake up the e-comm funnel with implications across retailers and digital ad players.”
Morgan Stanley
That bullish outlook underscores why retailers have been scrambling to launch their own AI shopping assistants, including Amazon’s Rufus, Walmart’s Sparky, and Target’s ChatGPT-powered app.
OpenAI deepened ChatGPT’s agentic AI-powered shopping capabilities this week, adding a “shopping research” feature to help users find the best products for their needs. Google has also enhanced its AI shopping tools ahead of the holiday season, debuting an AI assistant that can call local stores on a user’s behalf.
Morgan Stanley wrote in the note that personalized grocery shopping could become a “key unlock” for agentic commerce growth. After groceries, Morgan Stanley predicts household products, personal care, and apparel categories to benefit from AI shopping agents.
Amazon has been an early mover in AI shopping assistants with its Rufus tool. Rufus is expected to indirectly contribute over $700 million in operating profit this year, Business Insider previously reported. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in October that Rufus was on pace to drive $10 billion in “incremental annualized sales,” although he pointed out that the customer experience still needs improvement.
“We’re very excited about the long-term prospect of agentic commerce,” Jassy said during an October call with analysts. “The promise is that AI and agentic commerce solutions are going to expand the amount of shopping that happens online.”
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