Diplomatic tensions remain unresolved, sanctions are tightening and Iran’s rhetoric hasn’t softened.
Trump’s SPR Refill Could Reset the Price Floor
During his January 2025 inaugural address, President Trump vowed to “refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) right to the top.”
Now with the SPR sitting at 346.8 million barrels – the lowest since 1983, and Oil trading back at multi-year lows – Trump has a unique opportunity to buy cheap Oil – and markets know it.
Historically, large-scale SPR refills have coincided with massive rallies. In 2009, the SPR refill coincided with a 53% rally in Oil over 6 months.
In 2020, emergency purchases triggered a 70% rebound in 8 months.
Any move by the Trump administration to refill at $60–$65 levels could set a new price floor and spark another historic rally.
History Shows Pullbacks Like This Don’t Last Long
Analysts at GSC highlight a familiar pattern. In 2016, WTI dropped 25% before rallying 48% in five months.
In 2020, a 30% fall was followed by a 56% surge in six months. More recently, in 2022, prices fell 19% and then soared 41%.
Today’s setup mirrors these conditions: falling prices, fragile sentiment, but unchanged fundamentals. As analysts at GSC puts it: “this is classic asymmetric opportunity. Temporary weakness, long-term strength and a market caught offside.”
This May Be the Best Oil Entry Point of 2025
With global demand climbing, supply tight, geopolitical risk under-priced and the U.S government likely to step in as a buyer – this pullback could be a gift to forward-looking traders.
As GSC summed it up in a recent note: “Crude Oil has rarely looked this asymmetric. Prices have corrected hard – but the fundamentals haven’t.”
As the famous saying goes – in the midst of chaos lies opportunity. This might just be the last best chance to load up on Oil before the next leg higher.
