Global politics today resembles a complex chessboard – but it is no longer dominated solely by kings and queens. As great powers engage in rivalry and stalemate, it is the middle powers, like the bishops and knights in a game of chess, that manoeuvre with flexibility across the board, shaping outcomes and sustaining balance.
The post-Cold War expectations of the ‘end of history’ have given way to a more fragmented and uncertain global order. Strategic competition, eroding multilateralism, and overlapping regional crises have revealed deep structural cracks. In this environment, the notion that superpowers alone can uphold global stability is no longer tenable. Increasingly, it is middle powers — pragmatic, more agile, and trusted — that are redefining what global leadership looks like.
The shift is not accidental but structural. Three forces explain the growing importance of middle powers.
First, strategic overstretch and inward focus have led major powers to withdraw from collaborative leadership, leaving vacuums in global governance. Second, today’s challenges from climate change to security issues increasingly demand inclusive, multi-actor cooperation, where middle powers can play an important role by mediating and convening across divides. Third, trust dynamics increasingly favour middle-sized nations: they are often seen as unbiased, pragmatic, and cooperative – all essential to reach agreements and shape coalitions.
To maintain influence while avoiding entanglement in great power rivalry, middle powers leverage strategies such as coalition-building, diversified partnerships, soft power, and smart diplomacy.
Some have carved out global niches through specialization. Switzerland leads in finance and precision manufacturing; South Korea in technology and innovation; Singapore in logistics and governance. These nations prove that influence can be built not by size, but by focus and credibility.
Of course, middle powers face real constraints — limited resources, vulnerability to pressure, and lack of a shared identity. Balancing relations with competing major powers also carries risk. But their comparative strengths — agility, trust capital, and regional insight — allow them to function as stabilizers, bridge-builders, and norm-setters in an increasingly multipolar world.
Rather than aspiring to rival the great powers, middle powers can create coalitions of relevance — flexible alignments around common interests like food security, digital innovation, and cultural diplomacy. These are not blocs, but communities of purpose.
Kazakhstan is one such aspiring middle power. Long regarded as a crossroads of cultures and civilizations in the heart of Eurasia, we are ready to embrace this role with purpose and determination. Being the largest landmass and economic powerhouse in Central Asia, Kazakhstan remains steadfast in its commitment to advancing the values of multilateralism, diplomacy, and dialogue.
Our country has contributed meaningfully to global nuclear non-proliferation efforts, food and energy security, and the stability of international supply chains. Its strategic location at the intersection of Europe and Asia enables it to serve as a key transit and connectivity hub — particularly through its promotion of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or the Middle Corridor. Over the past four years, this route has experienced notable growth, with cargo volumes increasing eightfold and reaching 4.5 million tons in 2024, while growth projections are even more impressive.
In addition to its logistical advantages, Kazakhstan contributes to the global supply chain of critical raw materials. The country already supplies more than 40% of the world’s uranium, essential for fuelling nuclear power plants, and produces over half of the 34 critical raw materials deemed vital by the international markets.
These resources are integral to the technologies that are shaping our modern world, including electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advancements in artificial intelligence. As nations compete to secure access to rare earth elements such as lithium and copper, Kazakhstan can serve as a reliable and stable supplier, reinforcing its position in the global economy.
In this context, Kazakhstan’s initiative to host the Astana International Forum (May 29–30, 2025) under the theme ‘Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future’ is timely. It offers a platform for open dialogue on global challenges that demand exactly the kind of inclusive, pragmatic cooperation that middle powers can deliver.
The great powers, by definition, will continue to engage in power play and may try to impose their will by force. But the future won’t be shaped by force alone. It will be shaped by those who can connect, mediate, and build. While great powers often compete against each other, the middle powers can and should work together. And there has never been a more appropriate time for such collaborative action.
[Photo by President.az, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
