Market Underestimating Chance of Russian Gas Flow Disruption

The market is underestimating the chance of disruption to Russian gas flows.

That’s what analysts at Standard Chartered Bank, including the company’s commodities research head Paul Horsnell, think, a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered Bank team late Tuesday revealed.

“The ‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025’, introduced by U.S. senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat), has 85 co-sponsors in the Senate (out of 100 senators),” the analysts stated in the report.

“In a joint statement on 14 July the two senators noted President Trump’s decision to implement 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days but pledged that they will continue to work on ‘bipartisan Russia sanctions legislation that would implement up to 500 percent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas’,” they added.

“Market reaction to President Trump’s announcement was muted, perhaps as part of general trader fatigue in relation to proposed actions against Russia that were subsequently delayed or significantly watered down,” they continued.

“There remains skepticism that the U.S. will take actions that might drive oil prices higher; however, we think it is much easier for the U.S. to put pressure on Russian gas flows as this would likely result in higher U.S. LNG exports at higher prices,” they said.

“With a strong head of bipartisan steam behind measures in the Senate, we think the market is underestimating the chance of disruption to Russian gas flows,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts noted.

In the report, the analysts went on to state that they estimate that the EU’s net imports of Russian pipeline gas averaged 79.8 million cubic meters per day (mcmpd) in the first 14 days of July, based on European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) data.

“All non-transit flows into the EU came into Bulgaria through the Turkstream pipeline, with Hungary and Slovakia also receiving Turkstream gas,” they said in the report.

“There was also a flow of about 65 mcmpd of Russian LNG in the first half of July; in total, Russia provided 18.6 percent of the EU’s net imports, lower year on year by 1.7 percentage points but 6.8 percentage points higher than March 2025’s low,” they added.

“While EU inventories are building strongly in the face of weak demand and strong LNG flows, we think prices are not fully reflecting the possibility of a further constriction in Russian gas flows,” the analysts highlighted.

Rigzone has contacted the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the European Commission Chief Spokesperson for comment on the Standard Chartered Bank report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.

A joint statement from Graham and Blumenthal was posted on Graham’s website on July 14. The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 bill also goes by H.R.2548, the Congress.gov website shows. The bill needs to pass the house and the senate before going to the president and becoming law, the site outlines. It was introduced on January 4, 2025, and is sponsored by Republican congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, the site highlights.

A “latest action” subhead, related to the bill, on the Congress site points out that, on January 4, the House “referred [the bill] to the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and in addition to the Committees on the Judiciary, Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Oversight and Government Reform, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned”. 

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com