A Chevron gas station in San Francisco, Oct. 28, 2025.
Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s call for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector after the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro is easier said than done.
Chevron holds the advantage as the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela, according to Wall Street analysts. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips left the country after former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry and seized their assets in 2007.
Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, at 303 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But a long and expensive road lies ahead for U.S. oil majors to restore Venezuela to its peak production of 3.5 million barrels per day reached in the 1990s.
“It’s a high risk area for oil companies to invest in,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management.
It would require roughly $53 billion of investment over the next 15 years to just maintain crude oil production level of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to estimates from consulting firm Rystad Energy. The capital expenditures needed to reach 3 million bpd by 2040 would more than triple, to $183 billion, according to Rystad.
Certainty and stability
U.S. oil majors will want certainty about who is charge in Caracas and how stable the government is, said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy.
They will need to know whether the legal and fiscal regime will last long term because energy investments are 30-year projects, said David Goldwyn, who served as the State Department’s special envoy for international energy affairs from 2009 to 2011.
The situation in Caracas right now is anything but certain. Trump declared Saturday that the U.S. will run Venezuela after Maduro’s overthrow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to backtrack, telling NBC News in a Sunday interview that the U.S. will use its leverage to pressure Caracas to meet U.S. demands.
Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has assumed power in Venezuela, pledging over the weekend that the government would defend the country’s resources, but later said Caracas sought to cooperate with the U.S.
A major a question is whether Venezuela could return to a regime similar to Maduro’s in the future and nationalize oil assets again, Rasumussen at Global Risk Management said.
Surplus reserves
U.S. oil majors will grapple with whether it makes financial sense to invest tens of billions of dollars in Venezuela when there is already so much oil in the world, said McNally, a former White House energy advisor under President George W. Bush.
“There are plenty of reasons to think this is going to be more of a long and winding road, rather than a quick shot,” said McNally,
Chevron maintains joint ventures with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) through a special licensed issued by the U.S. government. Those partnerships are responsible for about 23% of Venezuela’s output, according to JPMorgan.
“The company would be in an advantaged position to potentially scale future output as they have significant oil resources in place through their JVs and have been a key developer of the country’s energy infrastructure,” JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram told clients in a Monday note.
Chevron shares climbed more than 5% Monday as investors bet the oil major will cash in after Maduro’s ouster.
— CNBC’s Hayley Cuccinello contributed to this report.
