In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending May 23.
“This follows a 1.3 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly looser than our expectations,” the strategists stated in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model another increase in crude runs (+0.2 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a moderate increase, with exports (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.8 million barrels per day) higher on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists noted in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a reduction (-0.3 million barrels per day) following another strong nominal print last week,” the analysts went on to state in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.8 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The analysts went on to note in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a draw in gasoline (-0.5 million barrels), with builds in distillate (+0.7 million barrels) and jet (+0.6 million barrels”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending May 23,” the analysts added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on May 21 and included data for the week ending May 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 1.3 million barrels from the week ending May 9 to the week ending May 16.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 443.2 million barrels on May 16, 441.8 million barrels on May 9, and 458.8 million barrels on May 17, 2024. The EIA report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 400.5 million barrels on May 16, 399.7 million barrels on May 9, and 368.8 million barrels on May 17, 2024, the report pointed out. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.623 billion barrels on May 16, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were up 5.8 million barrels week on week and up 4.3 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on May 22, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the SPR, rose by 1.3 million barrels and stated that “this increase was counter-seasonal – thus putting some pressure on prices”.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on May 19, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 3.4 million barrels for the week ending May 16.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on May 29. It will include data for the week ending May 23. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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