In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending October 24.
“This follows a 1.0 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing modestly looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a minimal reduction in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a large reduction, with exports higher (+0.7 million barrels per day) and imports lower (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
“Likewise, timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance. From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a bounce (+0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” they continued.
The strategists went on to state in the report that they “anticipate a smaller increase (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week”.
Also in the report, the strategists noted that, “among products” they “look for draws in gasoline (-4.2 million barrels) and distillate (-1.3 million barrels), with jet stocks also slightly lower (-0.2 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at 14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending October 24,” the strategists added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 22 and included data for the week ending October 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by one million barrels from the week ending October 10 to the week ending October 17.
In that report, the EIA showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.8 million barrels on October 17, 423.8 million barrels on October 10, and 426.0 million barrels on October 18, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 408.6 million barrels on October 17, 407.7 million barrels on October 10, and 384.6 million barrels on October 18, 2024, the EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.693 billion barrels on October 17, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 3.4 million barrels week on week and up 50.7 million barrels year on year, according to the EIA report.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on October 23, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing “painted a mildly bullish picture, showing broad draws across the barrel despite higher refinery runs and imports”.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 29. It will include data for the week ending October 24.
Although the White House website highlights that the U.S. government has been shut down for more than 28 days, a banner visible on the EIA website on Wednesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on Friday, the EIA confirmed that it doesn’t expect any changes to its data publication schedule this week.
The EIA describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The organization notes on its site that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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