In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie Group late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending July 18.
“This follows a 3.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a minimal reduction in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a large reduction, with exports up (+0.4 million barrels per day) and imports down (-0.7 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a bounce-back (+0.9 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” they analysts noted in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small draw in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (-0.2 million barrels) this week,” they added.
“Among products, look for draws in gasoline (-1.8 million barrels) and distillate (-0.8 million barrels), with a build in jet (+0.9 million barrels). We model implied demand for these three products at ~15.0 million barrels per day for the week ending July 18,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on July 16 and included data for the week ending July 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 3.9 million barrels from the week ending July 4 to the week ending July 11.
That report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.2 million barrels on July 11, 426.0 million barrels on July 4, and 440.2 million barrels on July 12, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR came in at 402.7 million barrels on July 11, 403.0 million barrels on July 4, and 373.7 million barrels on July 12, 2024, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.658 billion barrels on July 11, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 9.0 million barrels week on week and down 11.2 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on July 14, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending July 11.
“This follows a 7.1 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing significantly looser than our expectations,” the strategists stated in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on July 23. It will include data for the week ending July 18. The weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
The EIA states on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. The organization describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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