In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending May 2.
“This compares to our early look which anticipated a 5.2 million barrel build,” the strategists said in the report.
“On the product side of the ledger, in aggregate, our expectations are also revised tighter for this week,” they added.
In the report, the strategists noted that, “for this week’s crude balance, from refineries”, they “model crude runs modestly lower (-0.2 million barrels per day)”.
“Among net imports, we model a large increase, with exports lower (-0.2 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
They went on to note that, “from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers)”, they “look for a reduction (-0.5 million barrels per day) following a strong nominal print last week”.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.6 million barrels) this week,” the strategists said.
The strategists also highlighted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-2.7 million barrels) and distillate (-1.9 million barrels), with jet stocks nearly flat (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending May 2,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Thursday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate a healthy U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report.
That EIA report is scheduled to be released on May 7 and will include data for the week ending May 2. The EIA’s most recent weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing was released on April 30 and included data for the week ending April 25.
“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we anticipate a healthy U.S. crude build (+5.2 million barrels), with runs up (+0.2 million barrels per day) and net imports sharply higher (+1.8 million barrels per day), nominal implied supply correcting lower (-0.5 million barrels per day), and a smaller increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] inventory (+0.8 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists stated in the report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Thursday.
“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data, alongside potential end of month noise,” they warned in that report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the week ending April 18 to the week ending April 25. That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 440.4 million barrels on April 25, 443.1 million barrels on April 18, and 460.9 million barrels on April 26, 2024.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 398.5 million barrels on April 25, 397.5 million barrels on April 18, and 366.3 million barrels on April 26, 2024, that EIA report outlined. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.610 billion barrels on April 25, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 5.3 million barrels week on week and up 2.8 million barrels year on year, that report revealed.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on May 2, Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted “the larger than expected draw in U.S. crude inventories reported [on April 30]”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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