In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 7.6 million barrels for the week ending May 9.
“This follows a 2.0 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists noted in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs higher (+0.3 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a very large increase, with exports down (-0.9 million barrels per day) and imports up (+0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a small increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists said in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a slightly smaller increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.5 million barrels) this week,” they added.
“Among products, we look for a draw in distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with jet stocks up (+0.7 million barrels), and gasoline nearly flat (-0.1 million barrels). We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending May 9,” the strategists went on to state.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on May 7 and included data for the week ending May 2, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by two million barrels from the week ending April 25 to the week ending May 2.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 438.4 million barrels on May 2, 440.4 million barrels on April 25, and 459.5 million barrels on May 3, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 399.1 million barrels on May 2, 398.5 million barrels on April 25, and 367.2 million barrels on May 3, 2024, the report outlined.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.612 billion barrels on May 2, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were up 1.7 million barrels week on week and up 5.7 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Osama Al Saifi, Managing Director for MENA at Traze, said “an increase in U.S. gasoline inventories has raised concerns over soft consumption heading into the summer driving season”.
“Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels from last week and are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.
“Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on May 5 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending May 2.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on May 14. It will include data for the week ending May 9. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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