In a report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by the Macquarie team, the company revealed its latest oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
According to that report, Macquarie sees the Brent price averaging $67.95 per barrel this year and $60.75 per barrel next year. Macquarie projected in the report that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price will average $64.13 per barrel in 2025 and $56.63 per barrel in 2026.
The Brent price will average $68 per barrel in the third quarter, $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $57 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $60 per barrel in the third quarter, and $67 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, Macquarie forecast in the report.
The company predicted in the report that the WTI price will come in at $63.50 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $58.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $53.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $55 per barrel in the second quarter, $55.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $62.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a report sent to Rigzone back in June by the Macquarie team, Macquarie projected that Brent oil would average $70.64 per barrel in 2025 and $64.50 per barrel in 2026. In that report, Macquarie saw the WTI price coming in at $66.53 per barrel in 2025 and $60.38 per barrel in 2026.
“We are reducing our FY’25 oil price outlook, with WTI averaging ~$64 per barrel, down from ~$67 per barrel,” Macquarie strategists, including Vikas Dwivedi, the company’s global energy strategist, said in Macquarie’s latest report.
“Similarly, we lowered our FY’26 oil price outlook, with WTI averaging ~$57 per barrel, down from $60 per barrel,” they added.
In the report, the strategists said they “preserve” their “view of a heavily oversupplied oil market through YE25 and 2026”.
“The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration’s domestic and foreign policy has created uncertainty amongst oil market forecasters and impacted supply and demand expectations,” they noted.
“To date, price volatility has been driven by a few main items including (1) trade war 2.0, (2) recent shift in OPEC strategy, and (3) geopolitical events, most recently the reinvigorated Russia-Ukraine conflict,” the strategists went on to state.
“All told, our 2025 balances remain extraordinarily long, with large NOPEC supply growth led by the Americas. Further, sub-trend demand growth is exacerbating our expectations for oversupply,” they continued.
Rigzone has contacted the White House, the U.S. Department of Energy, OPEC, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment on Macquarie’s latest report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone on September 11 by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at the company, showed that J.P. Morgan expected the Brent crude price to average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price would average $62 per barrel this year and $53 per barrel next year.
According to its latest short term energy outlook, which was released on September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent spot price to average $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026. The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that the WTI spot price will average $64.16 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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