(Investing) – Macquarie is forecasting a 6.5 million barrel decrease in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending June 13, according to the firm’s energy strategist, Walt Chancellor. This projected decline follows a 3.6 million barrel draw in the previous week, when the crude balance was looser than Macquarie had anticipated despite strong refinery activity.
The firm expects crude runs to moderate by 0.3 million barrels per day after strong performance last week. Net imports are projected to decrease sharply, with exports jumping by 1.2 million barrels per day while imports increase by 0.2 million barrels per day. Macquarie notes that cargo timing remains a potential source of volatility in the weekly crude balance.
Implied domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, is forecast to nominally increase by 0.3 million barrels per day. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is expected to see another small increase of 0.2 million barrels for the week.
For petroleum products, Macquarie anticipates builds in gasoline stocks of 1.6 million barrels and jet fuel inventories of 0.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks are projected to decrease by 0.3 million barrels. The firm models implied demand for these three products at approximately 14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending June 13.
Macquarie also indicates potential volatility in refinery runs figures, given the surprising strength observed in recent weeks. The firm’s forecast provides insight into expected inventory movements ahead of official weekly data releases.
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