If you made Oscar winner predictions based on who was leading on Kalshi and Polymarket, you would’ve done pretty well.
Loading audio narration…
The two prediction market platforms correctly identified the winner in 19 out of the 24 categories represented at Sunday night’s Academy Awards.
That’s not quite as good as Polymarket’s record with the Golden Globes in January — traders correctly predicted 26 out of 28 winners that night — but it nonetheless demonstrates the markets’ ability to channel the wisdom of the crowds, at least most of the time.
And even the stars themselves are getting in on the action: Kevin O’Leary, the “Shark Tank” star who played a supporting role in “Marty Supreme,” said he bet $1,000 on Kalshi that his costar Timothée Chalamet would win the Oscar for best actor.
He ended up being wrong: Michael B. Jordan of “Sinners” won, as both Kalshi and Polymarket predicted. But if Chalamet had won, O’Leary would have made a significant profit.
Prediction markets correctly identified the winner in all of the major categories, including best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, and best screenplay.
But in the following five categories, the winning film was not favored by prediction markets.
Best cinematography: “One Battle After Another” was the overwhelming favorite to win, with odds well over 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket in the days leading up to the awards show. But the Oscar ultimately went to Autumn Durald Arkapaw from “Sinners.”
Best animated short film: “Butterfly” was the favorite to win, with chances in the 50s and 60s in the days before the show. “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” got the Oscar.
Best live action short film: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” was favored to win on both platforms, though not by much. But it ultimately ended up being a tie, with both that film and “The Singers” winning an Oscar.
It was only the seventh tie in the history of the Oscars, and the first in over a decade. Kalshi allowed traders to choose “Tie” as an option, though the market only gave it a 2% chance of happening.
On Polymarket, the rules stipulated that in the event of a tie, the film whose “listed name comes first in alphabetical order” would be treated as the winner, meaning those who bet on “The Singers” received payouts.
Best documentary feature film: At 66% on both prediction markets, “The Perfect Neighbor” was the favorite. “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” ended up winning the Oscar.
Best casting: “One Battle After Another” won, despite the prediction markets putting the odds of a “Sinners” victory in the high 70s.
