JP Morgan is sticking to its base-case oil price forecast for 2025.
The investment bank projects Brent crude will trade in the low-to-mid $60s.
JPMorgan: Brent could spike to $120+ in a worst-case scenario as a result of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
JP Morgan is sticking to its base-case oil price forecast for 2025, projecting Brent crude will trade in the low-to-mid $60s, despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the U.S., and potentially Israel.
In a note published Thursday, the bank said it sees oil averaging $60 in 2026, but flagged $120–$130 per barrel as a potential range in the event of worst-case outcomes—namely, military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows.
Markets are already partially pricing in a risk premium: Brent is trading near $69.54, with WTI at $68.07 as of midday in New York—roughly $4 above JP Morgan’s June fair value estimate of $66.
The backdrop: The IAEA on Thursday formally declared Iran in breach of nuclear non-proliferation obligations, a first in 20 years, after uncovering undeclared nuclear activity at multiple sites. Indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks resume June 15 in Oman.
Meanwhile, Israel is reportedly weighing unilateral military action against Iranian nuclear sites, even as President Trump pursues a framework deal. The U.S. has already pulled non-essential personnel from embassies across the region.
JP Morgan notes that while such escalations could lead to meaningful supply disruption—particularly if Iran’s 2.1 million bpd of exports are cut off—its base case still assumes diplomacy holds.
Oil is currently supported by summer demand and low U.S. inventories. But come fall, macroeconomic headwinds and rising OPEC+ output are expected to weigh on prices.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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