Israel-Iran conflict continues but markets seem unfazed

The U.S. stock market rose and oil prices retreated amid news that Iran wants a ceasefire with Israel. As early as the first days of Israel’s strikes, Tehran reportedly asked several countries to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to call on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, NBC News reported, citing a Middle East diplomat with knowledge of the situation.

When asked at a news briefing Monday about the prospect of a ceasefire, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated he was not interested in one, according to NBC News. Netanyahu said Israel is “not backing down” from eliminating Iran’s nuclear program.

Regardless of how negotiations — or the lack thereof — play out, it’s clear that countries are placing renewed emphasis on defense. The U.S. Defense Department is turning to artificial intelligence to bolster its forces, announcing on Monday a one-year contract with OpenAI “to address critical national security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise domains.” 

Amid the Monday developments regarding armed conflict and defense considerations, the Trump Organization announced a mobile phone plan called Trump Mobile and a smartphone, clad in gold and emblazoned with an American flag, dubbed “T1.” Putting aside iffy ethical issues about the sitting U.S. president lending his name to consumer products, their unveiling seemed ill-timed and tone deaf. Perhaps the reception over Trump Mobile was spotty.

Markets recover on hopes of containment
U.S. stocks rose Monday on news that Iran is reportedly seeking a ceasefire with Israel. The S&P 500 was up 0.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.52%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index added 0.36%. Some analysts, however, are warning that global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran.

Safe-haven assets dip
In another sign the markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict — which continued for the fourth consecutive day — both safe-haven assets and oil prices dipped Monday. At the end of the trading day stateside, spot gold prices fell 1.03%, while the dollar index dipped 0.07%. Meanwhile, U.S. crude fell 1.66% to settle at $71.77 and international benchmark Brent lost 1.35% to close at $73.23 a barrel.

‘Golden share’ in U.S. Steel
Shares of U.S. Steel rallied 5.1% Monday after Trump issued an executive order on Friday that allowed the firm and Nippon Steel to finalize their merger so long as they sign a national security agreement with the U.S. government. U.S. Steel said Friday that the agreement, which both companies have signed, includes a golden share for the U.S government, which would give it veto power over many decisions.

OpenAI wins contract from Defense Department
OpenAI has been awarded a $200 million one-year contract to provide the U.S. Defense Department with artificial intelligence tools, the latter announced Monday. It’s the first contract with OpenAI listed on the Department of Defense’s website. In December, OpenAI said it would collaborate with defense technology startup Anduril to deploy advanced AI systems for “national security missions.”

Trump Organization enters telecommunications
The Trump Organization, a company owned by the current U.S. President, on Monday announced a mobile phone plan and a $499 smartphone set to launch in September. The company’s new foray into telecommunications mainly comprises a licensing agreement. On Friday, the president reported that he had made more than $8 million in 2024 from various licensing agreements.

[PRO] What would it take for markets to react?
Equity and energy markets appeared to shake off concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East on Monday, reversing some of the moves from late last week. Such a response to geopolitical conflict is not unusual, according to one strategist, who explained what it would take for markets to feel the effects of the hostilities.

As G7 leaders meet, allies ask: Is Trump with us or against us?

As leaders of the world’s largest advanced economic powers gather in Canada for this year’s Group of Seven summit, ongoing trade instability and turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East are set to dominate talks.

With uncertainty over those major issues largely arising from the White House’s economic and foreign policy, allies are likely to ask whether Trump stands with them, or against them on major geopolitical points.

Asked if he planned to announce any trade pacts at the summit as he left the White House on Sunday, Trump said: “We have our trade deals. All we have to do is send a letter, ‘This is what you’re going to have to pay.’ But I think we’ll have a few, few new trade deals,” in comments reported by The Associated Press.