India is stepping in to plug fuel shortages in Russia’s key markets after Ukrainian drone strikes crippled parts of Moscow’s refining system, curtailing fuel exports.
Private refiners Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have ramped up supplies to Brazil, Turkey, the UAE and parts of Africa as these countries seek alternatives to Russian fuels.
Moscow has prioritised its domestic fuel market, imposing export curbs to contain shortages at home, which cut product exports by an estimated 200,000 bpd in September, according to Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider.
“Russian refinery outages and new export restrictions-partial diesel ban; gasoline ban extensions-constrained product outflows in late September from Russia,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler.
India’s refined product exports to Brazil more than doubled month-on-month, rising to 97,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from 40,000 bpd in August, and well above the 40,000 bpd shipped a year earlier. Exports to Turkey climbed to 56,000 bpd, up from 20,000 bpd in August, compared with no shipments in September last year. “That’s exactly the kind of backfill you’d expect when Russian diesel/gasoline pulls back,” Ritolia said.
Reliance accounted for most of the Indian supplies to Brazil and Turkey, with Nayara contributing a small share. Turkey and Brazil, both key Russian diesel importers, have traditionally been minor clients for Reliance. Nayara had never exported to the two countries in the past two years but began shipments in August and September, after EU sanctions shut off most of its regular markets.
India’s supplies to the UAE, another major Russian customer, also increased to 201,000 bpd in September from 140,000 bpd in August. Exports to Egypt and Togo also rose, while shipments to the US, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia declined. Overall, India’s refined products exports rose 14 per cent month-on-month to 1.59 million bpd in September.
Ukraine has ramped up drone attacks on Russian refineries and pipelines, sidelining some processing capacity and curbing petrol and diesel output. The strikes come just as seasonal fuel demand rises ahead of winter, leaving some Russian regions facing pump shortages and price spikes, according to media reports.
By targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, Kyiv aims to weaken Moscow’s ability to generate revenue from oil and gas exports, which have continued largely unimpeded despite several western measures. Lower refinery runs from drone damage have cut Russia’s product exports but left more crude available for shipment abroad.
