India’s latest energy security blueprint comes at a moment of geopolitical anxiety. Recurring tensions in West Asia and the ever-present vulnerability of crude shipments through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz reveal India’s vulnerability to shocks as India’s growth story is deeply intertwined with imported oil and gas. India imports nearly 85% of its energy. Against this backdrop, the government is preparing to launch Mission Samudra Manthan, a national deepwater exploration drive, alongside a significant expansion of strategic petroleum reserves.Cabinet notes are under preparation for a three-pronged push — accelerate domestic exploration, augment crude reserves by 6 MMT to approach a 90-day buffer from the current 74 days, and strengthen India’s position as a refining and petrochemical hub, ET has reported today. Of these, Samudra Manthan and the expansion of strategic reserves form the core of the country’s immediate and long-term energy security.
At the centre of the new policy architecture lies Mission Samudra Manthan, a national deepwater exploration mission intended to reverse decades of under-exploration. India currently drills roughly 30 exploratory wells annually. The mission proposes to raise that figure to at least 100 wells per year over five years beginning 2026-27. Of these, 25 wells annually would target deepwater areas, while around 40 stratigraphic wells would be drilled to improve geological understanding of sedimentary basins.India’s offshore basins, particularly in deepwater zones, remain relatively underexplored compared to global standards. Deepwater exploration is technologically complex and capital intensive, but it also holds the promise of sizable discoveries. By institutionalising a mission-mode approach, the government is indicating that incremental reforms are insufficient and a structural expansion of risk-taking and investment is required.
This plan has ambitious targets. Hydrocarbon reserve accretion is projected to increase from about 1.6 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (BTOE) today to 2 BTOE by 2035 and 5 BTOE by 2047. Domestic crude production is targeted to rise from roughly 29 MMT to 35 MMT by 2030 and to 100 MMT by 2047. Natural gas output is expected to increase from about 36 BCM to 45 BCM by 2030 and further to 100 BCM by 2047.
Even partial achievement of these goals would reduce India’s import dependence, improve macroeconomic stability and cushion the economy against global oil price shocks. In that sense, Samudra Manthan is ultimately a macroeconomic risk-management strategy.
Strategic petroleum reserves: From Gulf War lessons to a 90-day goal
If Samudra Manthan addresses the supply side over the long term, strategic petroleum reserves serve as India’s immediate insurance against disruption. The idea of building such reserves took shape after the 1990–91 Gulf War, when crude prices spiked and supply chains were disrupted. The crisis exposed India’s limited buffer capacity and highlighted the dangers of excessive dependence on politically volatile regions.
However, fiscal constraints and competing development priorities delayed action. It was only in the early 2000s that the government formally approved the creation of underground rock cavern storage facilities. Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL) was established to execute the plan. Phase I led to the construction of strategic caverns at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur, with a combined capacity of about 5.33 MMT, equivalent to roughly 10 days of import cover.
The model evolved over time. Recognising the capital-intensive nature of such projects, the government began exploring public-private participation. Phase II introduced commercial-cum-strategic facilities, including projects at Chandikhol in Odisha and an expansion at Padur in Karnataka, together adding 11.83 MMT. These facilities allow partial commercial use while retaining emergency access for the state.
Alongside refinery stocks, estimated at around 55 days of petroleum, oil, and lubricants, India’s total reserve cover now stands at roughly 80 days. The new proposal to add 6 MMT would move the country closer to a 90-day buffer, a benchmark often associated with advanced energy-importing economies. This will be a crucial cushion against volatile global conditions.
The plan also envisions a 10-day strategic gas buffer across LNG terminals, reflecting the growing importance of natural gas in India’s energy mix.
The enabling architecture
While exploration and reserves form the visible pillars of the strategy, the government is simultaneously working on an enabling architecture to support them. This includes boosting domestic manufacturing capacity for exploration equipment such as drilling rigs and logging tools, thereby reducing reliance on imports and strengthening supply chains.
On the downstream side, the ambition is to raise refining capacity to 400 MMTPA by 2047 with deeper petrochemical integration, positioning India as a global refining and petrochemicals hub. Institutional changes, such as bringing petrochemicals fully under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, are intended to streamline policy coordination.
The plan also contemplates consolidating public sector oil and gas companies to create globally competitive “energy champions,” relaxing leadership selection norms, and granting greater board autonomy. In parallel, efforts to rationalise environmental inspections and expedite regulatory clearances aim to improve the investment climate for high-risk exploration projects.
All these reforms are designed to ensure that the aggressive drilling and reserve expansion targets under Samudra Manthan are backed by institutional capacity and financial strength.
