Indian refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with Washington drag on and discounts widen amid ample supplies.
Discounts on Urals crude loading in November are $2-to-$2.50 a barrel to Dated Brent, making it attractive, according to people familiar with the developments. That’s cheaper than discounts of about $1 a barrel in July-to-August, when supplies were tight due to Moscow’s prioritizing local customers.
For the current month, ship-tracking data point to an uptick in arrivals. Crude imports from Russia could average about 1.7 million barrels a day in October, according to Kpler Ltd. That would be about 6% higher on-month, but slightly lower than last year’s pace.
The US imposed a punitive 50% levy on US imports of Indian goods in August in a bid to pressure New Delhi to curb its appetite for Russian oil, although it’s refrained from similar action against China, another major buyer. In response, India made plain the deals are price-driven and would continue, although it’s also signaled it wants to buy more US energy amid talks with Washington.
Still, at this stage it remains unclear whether Indian refiners will continue to maximize purchases of discounted Russian crude given the talks with the US, said the people. Last month, officials from New Delhi described meetings as “constructive”, even with Washington’s demand India stop buying Russian oil.
Meanwhile, India’s state processors have begun talks with national oil companies in the Middle East and Africa for term deals for 2026, the people said. Refiners would be seeking for greater volumes from suppliers able to provide flexibility around volumes, such as allowing buyers to resell or optimize cargoes should Russian imports become more viable, they added.
Spokespeople for Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. didn’t reply to email seeking comments.
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