The US attack on Venezuela is unlikely to have any material impact on Indian refiners, which had already exited Venezuelan crude due to sanctions. Venezuela is now a marginal exporter, and any supply disruption is unlikely to lift global prices meaningfully in a well-supplied market.
The country produces around 900,000 barrels per day of crude – about 1 per cent of the global supply. Of the roughly 765,000 bpd it exports, nearly 76 per cent goes to China, exclusively to teapot refiners, according to Kpler.
The US has taken about 17 per cent in 2025, with the remaining cargoes shipped mainly to Cuba, Spain and Italy.
Any disruption to Venezuelan supply would affect only a narrow set of buyers, an industry executive said, adding that the global oil market is well supplied and can absorb any shortfall. The risk has largely been priced in, he noted, as the US last month ordered a blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments amid deteriorating bilateral ties.
The benchmark Brent has traded in the $60-65 a barrel range for several months, reflecting a persistent surplus.
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, which is cheaper and heavier and typically yields higher refining margins. However, RIL has since stopped sourcing Venezuelan oil. Other Indian refiners were only marginal users.
ONGC, India’s largest oil and gas producer, holds stakes in two Venezuelan oil fields – San Cristobal and Carabobo-1- but has been unable to receive its share of income for years. Persistent financial distress in Venezuela, followed by US sanctions that blocked oil trade and payment channels, has prevented ONGC from repatriating about $500 million in dividends.
In 2024, ONGC sought a US exemption to gain operational control of its assets in sanctions-hit Venezuela, a company executive said. In both fields, Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA holds a majority stake and controls operations and finances, even though ONGC is technically a joint operator.
