The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the release of new estimates for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, predicting that output of SAF will reach 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) (2.4 billion liters), nearly doubling the 1 Mt produced in 2024.
While substantially outpacing the prior year’s production, however, the new forecast marks a reduction in the IATA’s estimate for 2025 SAF output from its prior 2 Mt prediction, with the IATA noting that 2025 production will only account for 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption this year, and blaming the downward revision on a “lack of policy support to take full advantage of the installed SAF capacities.”
Additionally, the IATA warned that it anticipates that production growth will slow significantly next year, reaching 2.4 Mt in 2026, or 0.8% of jet fuel consumption.
Moreover, the slowdown in SAF production growth follows the implementation by the EU and UK this year of new SAF-focused mandates, requiring minimum, and increasing, amounts of SAF usage, causing prices for sustainable aviation fuel to increase sharply. According to the IATA, SAF prices exceed fossil-based jet fuel by a factor of two, and by up to a factor of five in mandated markets, with the IATA estimating that poorly designed mandates have led to airlines paying a $2.9 billion premium in 2025 for SAF.
IATA General Director Willie Walsh said:
“If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park. But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonization of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work.”
Fuel accounts for the vast majority of the aviation sector’s emissions. Generally produced from sustainable resources, like waste oils and agricultural residues, SAF is seen as one of the key tools to help decarbonize the aviation industry in the near- to medium-term. SAF producers estimate the fuels can result in lifecycle GHG emissions reductions of as much as 85% relative to conventional fuels. Efforts to meaningfully increase the use of SAF by airlines face significant challenges, including the low supply currently available on the market, and prices currently well above those of conventional fossil-based fuels.
Walsh also warned that the failure to accelerate SAF production will lead airlines with SAF targets to review their goals, noting that “many airlines that have committed to use 10% SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments. SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition.”
Walsh added:
“Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets, slow investment, and undermine efforts to scale SAF production. Europe’s regulators must recognize that its approach is not working and urgently correct course.”
