New data on the shadow fleet shows an increasing number of tankers are seeking the protection of Moscow by changing their flag of registration to Russia.
That trend has been further accelerated by the United States’ seizures of vessels carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil.
President Donald Trump has said U.S. oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector, after the overthrow of President Nicolás Maduro. Chevron, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are reportedly planning to meet with the Trump administration later this week. Trump also said the big oil companies will either “get reimbursed by us or through revenue.”
“We have seen an accelerated shift of vessels changing to the Russian flag over the past month,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. “Seventeen shadow fleet tankers changed fraudulent flags to join the Russian flag in the past few weeks alone.”
One of the latest high-profile sanctioned vessels to be newly registered under the Russian flag is the Bella 1, the tanker the United States stopped Dec. 20 during the ship’s transit to Venezuela to be filled with the sanctioned crude.
During that time, the Bella 1 was registered under a fraudulent Guyana flag. On Dec. 31, Russia notified the U.S. that the ship had changed its name to Marinera and switched its registration to Russia, according to Lloyd’s List. The vessel left the Caribbean.
According to Automatic Identification System data — real-time information transmitted by ships
— that Lloyd’s List is tracking, the vessel is now near Iceland, bound for Russia.
“This mid-voyage flag change appears to have been an attempt by the vessel’s operators to seek protection from a U.S. boarding and seizure,” said Meade.
Lloyd’s List research shows another sanctioned vessel was reflagged under Russia four days after the reflagging of the Marinera.
The vessel, now called Hyperion, was originally a U.S.-sanctioned tanker that delivered Russian naphtha to Venezuela’s Amuay Bay under a false flag in December. Naphtha is the key ingredient for thinning out the thick Venezuelan crude so it can flow through the pipelines for export. The Hyperion was also able to leave Venezuela untouched by the U.S. blockade.
“No doubt the Venezuela risk accelerates Russian intake of shadow fleet vessels,” Meade said.
“This all points to a more permanent evolution of the shadow fleet, with direct oversight and protection from Moscow,” he said.
“But what remains to be seen is how far Russia will be willing to go to protect these ships that are all operating in sanctioned trades,” Meade said.
“We are all now waiting to see whether the U.S. will be prepared to challenge Russia directly by intercepting a Russian-flagged tanker,” he said.
Not all newly Russian-flagged tankers have been able to leave Venezuela.
The Premier, which was reflagged from Gambia to Russia on Dec. 22, remains empty outside the Jose terminal in Venezuela, according to Lloyd’s List vessel tracking.
“Intelligence tells us several other ships currently attempting to leave Venezuela are similarly using fraudulent flags and may follow others in joining the Russian register to continue trading,” said Meade.
More than 40 shadow fleet ships have been registered under the Russian flag registry since June, according to Lloyd’s List.
“The shadow fleet is highly flexible,” Meade said. “Ships that have been engaged in Venezuelan trades will now likely move into Iran or Russia trades. There is a ready supply of vessels able to switch between these trades.”
Lloyd’s List data shows that more than 12% of the global tanker fleet is operating in the shadow fleet today.
“Dozens of shadow fleet tankers, many of them flagged by entirely fraudulent ship registers, are regularly passing under the noses of NATO when they enter and exit the Baltic Sea,” said Meade.
“Just like we saw in the Red Sea, where there are disruptions in trade routes, it takes time for vessel reshuffling,” said Meade. “At some point, we will see how the shadow fleet reshuffles as a result of this latest U.S. enforcement in Venezuela. We could see more of these vessels go to the Russian and Iranian trades.”
Meade said many of the tankers shifting flags to Russia are empty at the point they switch, suggesting that they are seeking protection from Russia in advance of their next loading operation.
Vessel tracking by energy consulting firm Kpler shows changes in Russia’s trade with Venezuela. Since late November, multiple Russian-origin cargoes of naptha have diverted, loitered in Venezuelan waters, or reversed course.
Shadow fleet tankers operate outside established insurance arrangements.
“There is no evidence that many of these vessels have insurance,” Meade said. “This is all untested. If there is a big spill with one of these vessels, which are very old, there is no way of knowing who would pay for the cleanup.”
