Henry Hub Spot Gas Prices ‘Collapse’

In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted that Henry Hub spot gas prices “collapse[d] to $2.86 per MMBtu [million British thermal units]” on Monday.

“Physical natural gas prices are crashing, with Henry Hub spot prices trading at a mere $2.86 per MMBtu yesterday,” Rubin stated in the report.

“Last month, December 2025 averaged $4.13 per MMBtu – and yesterday’s $2.86 average sits 45 cents (-14 percent) below even subdued physical pricing over an extraordinarily mild Christmas holiday,” he added.

“Regionally, while extended cold in the Northeast has Algonquin City Gates at $9.91 per MMBtu, prices have fallen apart to just $2.02 per MMBtu in the Rockies. Houston Ship Channel traded at $1.78 per MMBtu – nearing levels often associated with price-induced shut-ins during the lower demand shoulder season,” Rubin warned.

“Daily demand is expected to average 2.3 Bcfpd [billion cubic feet per day] lower on Wednesday-Friday than during today’s session, implying continued pressure on spot prices likely to bleed into the NYMEX futures market,” he continued.

In the report, Rubin noted that the NYMEX front-month contract “tested as low at $3.355 [per MMBtu] yesterday before finding support and rallying 17 cents into the close”.

“While technicals attempted to fill the gap down at the open, however, the near-term outlook (i) continues to bleed heating demand and (ii) may be weighed down by Henry Hub spot market collapse to $2.86 per MMBtu,” he added.

The EBW report highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.523 per MMBtu on Monday. It outlined that this was a 9.5 cent, or 2.6 percent drop, from Friday’s close.

In the report, Rubin said “weather driven demand will weaken further into Friday’s record warmth”, adding that “next week’s national gHDD total may approximate Week 1”.

“Eventually, a colder back half of January remains on tap – but even that may do little to offset blowtorch early-month warmth eviscerating January gHDDs to the third warmest since 2017,” he added.

In Tuesday’s report, EBW predicted a “test lower and rebound” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and an “upside cold dependent” trend over the next 30-45 days.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin outlined that “mild weather forecasts” were “refashion[ing] [the] January natural gas outlook”.

“Weather forecasts continued to melt down over the weekend, sending natural gas hurtling lower. While January is barely 100 hours old, DTN’s forecast has already shed 55 gHDDs and 85 Bcf [billion cubic feet],” Rubin said in that report.

“Other widely followed meteorologists predict even larger gHDD losses,” he stated.

In that report, Rubin warned that “daily demand may lose another nine Bcfpd into Friday’s record warmth” and added that “weather has amplified bearish technicals with risks of the February contract falling to $3.25”.

Rubin went on to state in that report that “weather normalized fundamentals are stout”, noting that “weekly average production readings stumbled two Bcfpd to open 2026, virtually erasing supply gains since Thanksgiving”.

“Weekly LNG feedgas reached a record 19.9 Bcfpd. Both offer a degree of fundamental support,” he said.

“In the middle of winter, however, weather remains king. Chances for a sharply colder back half of January could still spark upside, and more than half of winter remains ahead,” Rubin pointed out.

“If forecasts cannot arrest gHDD declines, however, bulls will run out of time before the March contract becomes the NYMEX front-month in just three weeks,” Rubin warned.

EBW highlighted in Monday’s report that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.618 per MMBtu on Friday. This was down 6.8 cents, or 1.8 percent, from Thursday’s close, the report outlined.

In Monday’s report, EBW predicted a “volatile pattern continues” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and an “upside cold dependent” trend over the next 30-45 days.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com