Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, remarked on Powell’s testimony, stating:
“He pushes back a bit that they could have confidence by July, but sounded more open to September.”
Powell’s testimony coincided with key US economic data releases that showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly slumped. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 98.4 in May to 93 in June. Notably, the net share of survey respondents who say jobs are plentiful less those who say jobs are hard to get fell, while one year ahead inflation expectations declined for the second consecutive month. These trends could bolster expectations of a Q3 Fed rate cut.
Brian Tycangco, editor at Stansberry Research, commented on the consumer confidence data, stating:
“Collapsing consumer confidence is a key indicator of potential economic slowdown and, quite possibly, a recession. Calling the attention of Fed Chair Powell.”
Technical Setup: 24,500 Resistance in Focus as Middle East Tensions Ease
On June 25, the Hang Seng Index traded above the May-June congestion zone, nearing the Q2 high of 24,439. Significantly, the index held above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.
An unbroken Iran-Israel ceasefire and progress toward a US-Iran nuclear agreement may send the index above a June 11 high of 24,439. A sustained move through 24,439 could pave the way to the March high of 24,874. Conversely, a break below 24,000 may enable the bears to target 23,500, potentially exposing the 50-day EMA.
